Kentor Gold Trading Update

I am still holding my Kentor Gold trading parcel, which is now entering its third month within the portfolio. However you cannot mock the share price performance since last Monday which has rallied more than 40% from the intraday low of $1.005 in just two weeks.

The rally kicked off with the Market Insight Report (last Monday), was given a further boost with the Burnakura Drill Results (this Monday) and has remained fairly strong ever since. I believe this is due to the progress that appears to be being made at Andash.

Now, obviously some of you would be thinking it’s time to cash in the trading parcel and try and pick it up again in the low $1.30’s. I agree that it is very tempting and normally I would have taken this chance (after learning what happens when I hold too long). However the speculation surrounding Andash is just too high at the moment. We have Simon Milroy in the Kyrgyz Republic and news articles floating around about him meeting the Parliament and Government Ministers. To sell now would risk missing out on the move I have been waiting so long for (Andash approval).

The other thing to consider is that my trading parcel is not large so although the percentage gains look pretty good at the moment or a dollar level it is not all that significant (relative to the rest of my holdings).  I am therefore willing to take the risk of seeing the share price drop back in the short term and hold for the time being. I remain confident that a price in excess of $1.50 will be achievable on the back of Andash approval, if not higher.

Kentor Gold Trading Update

This was my first trade and I certainly stuffed it up. In my mind I thought that the consolidation would be bad for the share price in the short term but failed to sell when I was up 15-20% on my trading parcel of Kentor Gold.

Instead I felt that news from Andash must certainly be coming and that the reward for holding would far outweigh the risk. Unfortunately this proved incorrect and instead of selling at 12.5 or 13 cents (original purchase price of 11 cents) I continued to hold.

The stock closed at $1.07 (consolidated 1 for 10) on Friday so I am now down approx. 3% on my trading parcel. Obviously I could have sold and bought more now.

I’ll strike this one down as a learning experience and will remind myself in the future that when I am trading the idea is to take advantage of the SHORT TERM moves, not necessarily wait for news that could be weeks or months away.

I continue to hold the trading parcel as I believe in the fundamentals of the company and as I stated when I started my trading experiment I only trade in stocks that I am happy to hold long term any way.

The only other thing I am concerned about is the fact that I am going away to Europe for four weeks in March and won’t be able to monitor my stocks as much while I am over there.

Kentor Gold: Trading Update & Consolidation

Hi Everyone,

I thought I would do another update on the parcel of Kentor shares I am holding my my "trading account". Obviously I had expected news on Andash by now but the share price seems to be holding up okay and as I result I have not sold any of the shares.

As I previously mentioned I am happy to hold the shares until Andash approval because I do believe Kentor will get the go ahead. In the meantime, if the share price was to go to 14 cents I would take profits and try and re-enter a cent or two lower if possible. Obviously I run the risk of missing out on the news but a circa 30% gain is decent in itself. It would also give me the opportunity to trade KGL again, thus maximising my profit potential.

Complicating the matter is however the fact that Kentor Gold is consolidating the registry (1 for 10). I would have preferred to have exited my trading position prior to this in case there is any weakness when we re-open. As a result I will be monitoring the action closely over the next few days. I don't believe there will be enough weakness to force me to sell my trading stake, but it is something that I think I need to monitor, just in case.

There are of course benefits to consolidation, such as more institutions being able to join the register and other private investors becoming more interested in a stock with a $ sign in front of it. Either way it should be an interesting period for Kentor Gold and hopefully news is forthcoming in the very near term.

Finally, The chart continues to remain in fairly good shape so there is no reason to loose any sleep in this area just yet, especially well I am still sitting on a paper profit of circa 15%.

Kentor Gold: Trading Update

Some of you may be wondering if I sold my Kentor Gold trading stock into the Jervois Announcement as I indicated that I may do. The answer is no, I continue to hold the trading parcel for a number of reasons which I wish to detail below:

1.       Firstly the announcement failed to generate enough buying interest to sustain the share price above 14 cents. I am not trying to be greedy but I believe if I am going to take profits off the table (and try and buy back in) before the Andash announcement is out then I need to be compensated for the risk of holding no stock when this occurs. An approx. 25-30% return in this instance (if I was to sell at 14 cents) is sufficient in my opinion.

2.       On the day of the announcement I kept a close eye on the market depth and course of sales anything at 12.5 or 13 cents was fairly well supported. As a result even if I managed to sell some at 13.5c (only one trade went through at 14c) then the likelihood of buying back in much lower would be fairly low. Buying 0.005 cents below my sale price is only a 4% move and not really worth the risk/effort. Also due to the volume of buyers I may never get my order filled at this level (12.5c) in time.

3.       I also reviewed the chart which confirms the on market buying at 12.5 and 13cents is in line with a key area of support. The chart is also in an uptrend and taking money off the table at this level would be giving up too much of the potential gain in my opinion.

4.       I am confident that the outcome for Andash will be positive. It may require me to hold the stock for a little longer than planned but so far everything appears to be heading in the right direction.

I currently have an order to sell the stock at 14 cents (as per point 1). I would hope that this is only a brief run up before a pull back to 13 cents or lower so that I can buy back in again. I will keep a close eye on this and if I think the buying interest is strong over the next few days I will lift the order to 14.5 or 15 cents.

Taking this approach does however run the risk of holding no “trading stock” when Andash is released. This is a risk that I will have to take, otherwise the “trading” becomes more like “investing” as you continue to wait for a “big announcement” in whatever stock I am invested in at the time.

Alternatively if the Andash announcement is released I will pull my order completely and monitor the intra-day action before closing out my position at a level which will hopefully be higher than 14 cents.

First Trade - Kentor Gold

In my recent post on where I saw my blog going in 2012 I commented that I wanted to utilise a small percentage of my portfolio (20%) to trade with. The money will be invested primarily on fundamental analysis (i.e. in anticipation with news), combined with my knowledge of the stocks movements from watching it closely on a daily basis and a little bit of technical analysis.

The stocks I will trade will also be ones that I am happy to invest in long term or already hold in the portfolio. This will limit the downside risk as even if the stock moves against me in the stock term I am happy to hold the position for a little longer as part of my overall portfolio. This will obviously not affect my attachment to the stock in any way as any negative fundamental news will see both my trading and investment holdings sold.

For the time being I have not figured out how to combine this into my weekly report to ensure that my calculations are consistent on a weekly basis, but I will give it some thought and should have it set by this weekend.

I know I should post these on the day it happens, but again I have been flat out, so you will have to take my word when I say that I purchased a position in KGL at 11 cents per share just before the end of 2011. The reason for the trade was due to the expected news on the Andash project and Jervois upgrade. Unfortunately none have been forthcoming just yet and it appears as though Andash may still be a couple of weeks away. However, the Jervois update is due any day now as the consultants are finally back at work after their Christmas/New Year break. I expect to sell this trading parcel on the back of either one of these announcements.

As I have previously mentioned I am not after massive gains on each trade but anything from 10-40% will be my target on a consistent basis.