To get in touch simply post a comment below and I will write back.
I look forward to all your comments, feedback and suggestions for the site.
A Journey to Undercover Fundamental Value in the Small & Mirco Caps of Australia...
A Journey to Undercover Fundamental Value in the Small & Mirco Caps of Australia...
check out asxiq.com fundmental predefined screeners and let us know the feedback
ReplyDeleteps-not a spam comment , but sincere request for feedback
Hi James,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comment. That ASXIQ may be beneficial for some investors looking at already established companies, however, from my quick view of the site it looks like it ranks companies on profitability, past growth etc.
As most of the stock I invest in have little revenue (if any), run at a loss for the time being and are yet to produce (in some cases) I dont think they would score very highly.
Most of my fundamental research is based on my own analysis of past announcements and future projects.
Thanks again for your comment
All the best
Your depth of research is impressive IP. Check out MNB. If you can stomach the country risk of Angola or the DRC the NPV numbers are outstanding on their two initial DSO operations.
ReplyDeleteex Dyno Nobel CEO Peter Richards running the show. Directors hold approx 30%. Current Market Cap 34M fully diluted.
35Mt of P2O5 currently will end up 50Mt IMO. Vale recently sold a stake in its Bayovar phosphate mine (40Mt) which valued it at 1.1 Billion.
No hidden surprises that I can find. A lot of phosphate plays in Aus especially are located great distances from ports (MAK - huge capex) which means they are losing the grade advantage getting the product to market. MNB has the advantage of having its main Cabinda projects about 30km from the coast on sealed roads. The resource has low impurities and met test work on the main Mongo Tando deposit has shown the ore readily upgradable to 34-36% with high recoveries compared to other operations.
The Cabinda tenements are held 50/50. A scoping study on a high grade DSO operation at the 'Cacata' deposit within the Cabinda tenements showed an NPV of 348 @ 10% discount for MNB's 50% holding. CAPEX 102M (50M MNB share).
The high grade Kanzi deposit which is separate from the Cabinda tenements and is held 100% by MNB could show an NPV of around 900M on a DSO operation for a CAPEX of 80M. Simply amazing numbers. Altohugh Kanzi is in the DRC not Angola like the Cabinda tenements.
However Cacata and Kanzi are just the low capex, DSO operations that will provide the cash for the main game which is developing the rest of the Cabinda projects that will require large capex thus eliminating the need for further dilution.
Early days on the Cacata and Kanzi DSO numbers as the are only scoping study level. ( Cacata scoping/pre-feas due Q2) Maybe this will wake the market up!
The company is in the process of acquiring 75% of the Dinge Potash license which covers most the Cabinda phosphate licenses. Richards has said that in many locations the potash underlies the phosphate which would add a whole new dimension to the profitability of the operations.
Country risk is probably a large factor holding MNB back but the big nationals have been operating in Angola for years (biggest oil producer in Africa). DRC is not as safe but IMO much safer than Burkino Faso etc up North.
I believe it fits your criteria for large returns. Those NPV numbers on the two DSO operations (Cacata 350M and Kanzi 900M) are outstanding. And they aren't even the main game IMO. Its a potential 100 bagger IMO if Richards can transform this long term into a major fertilizer manufacturer sourcing product from its own mines (think Incitec Pivot - who coincidentally took over Dyno Nobel when Richards was CEO)
Would love to hear your thoughts. I post on Hotcopper and the MNB thread. I hold MNB.
Technically has broken out of downtrend although on low volume.
Hi Alex,
DeleteThanks for the very informative post. On face value it is certainly something that has caught my interest and warrants further investigation. As you say the NPV numbers are too good to be ignored.
I am currently in the process of researching another stock (BCC) and head overseas next week (for four weeks).
I will however find the time to check out MNB and let you know how I go.
Talk soon,
IP